It will be difficult to estimate the size of the incoming freshman class due to a struggling economy and increasing competition from universities in neighboring states, a top admissions official said Tuesday.

Nancy McDuff, associate vice president for admissions and enrollment management, told the University Council Faculty Admissions Committee that 4,800 is the ideal number of students the University hopes to enroll next fall. But several factors could increase or decrease the number of students who accept the school’s offer of admission.

“That’s the dilemma that keeps me awake at night,” McDuff said.

The struggling economy may attract in-state students to the University, as costs would be lower than private or out-of-state schools.

The University only enrolled about 4,700 students last year, 100 short of its target. McDuff thinks the University fell short because of increased competition from universities in neighboring states, which began directing more of their efforts at Georgia’s high schools.

The Office of Undergraduate Admissions considered what McDuff called “micro” factors affecting the average student, as well as “macro” factors that affect larger segments of the incoming freshman class.

“We want to go as deeply as we can to get the right number,” she said, adding that this year her office admitted a slightly higher number of students than last year.

The Office of Undergraduate Admissions holds programs for admitted students, she said, which encourage them to choose the University, increasing enrollment numbers.

The University will offer admission to 1,500-1,600 incoming freshmen with regular decision notifications.

This year marks the first time the University will place more than 1,000 students on its waiting list. About 1,300 to 1,400 students will remain in the University’s sights, McDuff said.

She said the students’ quality and diversity improved, but it is not a dramatic difference from last year.

McDuff addressed data from a national study showing the 18-year-old college-bound population at its highest numbers ever. The numbers in Georgia are projected to increase from 89,500 to 109,779 by 2021-22.

“This is just a huge boulder headed our way,” Susan Little, director of the Office of Student Financial Aid, said. “We know it’s coming, and we know the size of it.”

Little noted statistics show more minorities attending college, meaning the University will need to be flexible in accommodating different needs.