Correction appended.

University students with the HOPE Scholarship are expected to see an increase of more than $500 in the amount they pay toward tuition and fees starting Fall 2013, according to a presentation from the Georgia Student Finance Commission made on Tuesday to the Board of Regents.

And that’s not all.

By fiscal year 2015, HOPE is estimated to only cover half of the cost to attend the University.

“If you took tuition and fees at the University of Georgia in fiscal year 2015, basically the amount of the award would be half of that,” said Tim Burgess, senior vice president for finance and administration. “So that means the student and HOPE would basically be paying the same amount.”

Jackson

Tracy Ireland, division director of post-secondary student and school services for the GSFC, said for a University student, HOPE is projected to cover $2,720 per semester in fiscal year 2014.

He said these estimates were based on two different factors — projections for lottery revenue growth are flat, for the most part, for FY 2014 and GSFC estimates tuition to increase by 3 percent each year.

To prevent the award from dropping, the state government would need to come up with an additional $107 million before FY 2014, according to the GSFC presentation. That gap will jump to $163 million by 2016 if nothing is done.

And by 2015, students will essentially be paying the same amount out-of-pocket as the HOPE scholarship for tuition and fees.

“I think it’s scary because I think that will start a downward spiral,” said University freshman Matt LaMontagne, an accounting and real estate double major from Marietta. “If HOPE gets cut, fewer people will be able to go to college, and then where does that leave us? With a less educated work force? Education just affects everything.”

After the overhaul last year, many students are frustrated by how quickly more changes are coming.

“I think it’s incredibly frustrating. In difficult economic times, I think it’s unwise to cut education first, but that seems to be what always happens,” said University freshman Daniel Mason, an anthropology and speech communications double major from Athens. “It just seems that when the economy’s down, we should be investing in education first. That’s what’s going to make the future better.”

Burgess

One problem with the existing system is a provision in the new HOPE rules about the use of reserves.

“HOPE remains the best state-funded scholarship in America, and I’m sure our general assembly will do everything in its power to keep it that way,” said Tom Jackson, University vice president for public affairs.

When HOPE changed, the state dipped into reserves to supplement the lottery funding to keep the drop in the scholarship amounts from being as drastic. The new rules also require reserves to remain above a certain level. The reserves are large enough now to tap into for this year and next, but starting in 2014 the scholarship will have to rely on solely lottery revenue.

Tandi Reddick, the media relations manager for the Georgia Lottery Corporation, said the GLC is working on increasing revenue.

“We raise the dollars, but don’t appropriate the funds,” Reddick said. “Our mission is to maximize revenues for the educational programs we fund, and that is something we always work to do. We continue to introduce new games as an entertainment option for our players. Additionally, we are exploring ways to keep our existing mix of games fresh and exciting for players.”

The loss of reserve supplement combined with the expected 3 to 4 percent yearly increase in University tuition and fees will cause both students currently enrolled and incoming freshmen in 2014 to pay more for their education, Burgess said.

In the past three academic years, however, tuition has increased by more than 3 percent. Since 2009, the Regents increased tuition by 25. 15 and 9 percent, respectively.

Still, he does not think the additional out-of-pocket costs will affect enrollment at the University.

“Last year was the first dramatic change in HOPE in its 20 years of existence, yet enrollment in the freshman class was 500 to 600 more than expected,” Burgess said. “The expectation was that there would be a greater impact, but that didn’t pan out. If this academic year was any indication, I would say that enrollment is not one of the main factors affected in a HOPE decrease.”

Avery Weins, a freshman from Dunwoody, supports Burgess’ statement.

“I think that even if I’d known about the HOPE cuts last year when I was deciding on colleges, an in-state school would still have been the most affordable education. But the cuts are definitely frustrating for people who didn’t budget to pay tuition,” Weins said.

If the University is not seeing a decrease in enrollment, there must be other factors in play, according to Burgess. The demographic distribution of students at the University may change as tuition increases, he said.

“The question then becomes: does it change the mix of students who come to the University and what measures do they take to afford it?” Burgess said.

HOPE used to pay full tuition plus money for books for students who maintained a GPA of 3.0. Now, full tuition is awarded only to those maintaining a 3.3, which is approximately 10 percent of HOPE recipients. The full tuition award is now named the Zell B. Miller Scholarship.

If the scholarship rules stay the same, then in 2014, Zell recipients will continue to receive full tuition, but HOPE recipients’ award amount will depend on the revenue of the Georgia Lottery.

“It’s going to be hard. That money would have gone to studying abroad, my sisters’ education, or grad school,” said University freshman Sarah Lane, a genetics major from St. Simons Island. “It’s just that with all of these recent changes, students have no time to alter their plans. We’re given no notice, and then we’re not receiving the money we’ve been expecting.”

Correction: A previous version of this article reported the Zell B. Miller Scholarship is awarded to students maintaining a 3.5 GPA. Students must keep a 3.3 GPA on 30 credit hours to qualify.